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It Can't Happen Here
Katrina and the California Earthquake
by Victoria Chames Sept.7, 2005

"The Bay Area has the highest concentration of earthquake faults in the world."
-Bill Lettis, earth sciences consultant.

What happened last week in New Orleans and the Gulf Coast of the United States was not only the worst natural disaster in the history of this country, but also the loudest wake-up call ever experienced by our comfortable over-confident society. We never dreamed something of such horror and magnitude could ever happen here - even though all the TV meteorologists told us it might, then days before the storm hit land, told us it would.

“The bad news: The chances of the Big One happening in the next 30 years are about 90%, and the odds are that it will be in our own back yard.”
–reporter Chris Treadway, Montclarion January 1999

Along the West Coast from Canada to Mexico, we still think the Big Quake won’t really happen, even though we’ve been told repeatedly by every geologist and every emergency response and emergency management agency that it will. The odds of Katrina happening were extremely small - less than a 1% probability. The odds of the Big Quake have been reported conservatively at about 70% probability, and by the specialists in the trenches, 90%.

In the next 30 years, by the way, doesn’t mean after 30 more years (hello) it means any time now, within this 30 year span. It could be today, or tonight while you sleep. How prepared are we? There is no question of IF it will happen; the only question is WHEN, and Katrina surely is telling us we’d best not wait till the last minute to do what we can to prepare. That will be way too late.

Here are a few things we DO know:

1. The areas of destruction probably will be vast, and potentially spread over a much larger area than Katrina.

2. Those areas will look a lot like New Orleans did, except possibly there will be less flooding and more bleeding.

3. There will be thousands more physical and trauma injuries, as structures collapse on people, and buildings and cars trap or crush people, and torn power lines cause electrocutions and fires.

4. The Big Quake is likely to be worse than Katrina. I won’t say more; you already know this.

5. All city, county, and state Disaster Planning and Response agencies have been telling us since 1989, very clearly and specifically, that every citizen should expect and be prepared to manage on our own without outside help for at least 24 hours to three days immediately following a major disaster of any kind.

6. An abundance of information and detailed instructions have been published and widely distributed for free, everywhere on the West Coast. Have you read some of it?

7. The State of California (and I believe Oregon and Washington as well) has mandated every county and city to provide disaster preparedness and civilian disaster response training for their citizens. Do you know where to get it?

The majority of these training programs are based on a similar framework called CERT (Citizens Emergency Response Training) or NERT (neighborhood Emergency Response Training) and the training is provided through either Police or Fire Departments. Oakland California has its own program called CORE (Citizens of Oakland Respond to Emergency) which contains all of the elements of CERT and NERT and (in our opinion) is more user-friendly and more comprehensive.

Common weak points in most citizen training programs have been:
1. They often have inadequate staffing and funding (most are free to the citizens) and
2. Most of them use some type of (often sketchy) version of "Standard" First Aid.
(See the article “Why Isn’t Standard First Aid Good Enough”).

"One thing we know about the Bay Area is that there is no escape – we all live near a fault-line." -Bill Lettis, earth sciences consultant

The evolution of Oakland's CORE program began in 1989 with the Loma Prieta Earthquake and the collapse of a mile of freeway at the Cypress Overpass. In that catastrophic event, the responsibility for commanding the massive response and rescue operations was Battalion Chief Manny Navarro. He was surprised to see, firsthand, that the greatest number of rescues were not made by the million-dollar earth-moving equipment, not the fire engines or the ambulances or the sonar devices. The greatest number of rescues were made by the people who lived near the freeway, in the neighborhood.

Why? Because in the first crucial moments, they were already there. They rushed to help, climbing up on dangerously unstable broken structures to pull people out and hand them down to others waiting to receive them below, and carry them to a safe area. With no equipment and no training, they responded as human beings and did whatever they could. In his own words, Chief Navarro was professionally and personally “stunned.” Later he said (and I paraphrase, but this is essentially accurate) “I realized we’re spending the most money for the fewest results. It was obvious – We should be training the people in the neighborhood.” And that became a priority of the Oakland Fire Department, and would ultimately result in legislative mandate at the state level.

Now, in theory at least, every citizen in California can receive Disaster Preparedness and Disaster Response Training. However there are some shortfalls. Over the years, municipal OES (Offices of Emergency Services, which usually direct the citizen training, overseen by Fire or Police Department administration) have had repeated staffing and funding cuts. They’ve been cut, trimmed, and cut some more. (You know the drill.) And sometimes, scheduled citizen’s courses can be canceled, delayed, or otherwise trumped by other (higher priority?) activities of the agencies that oversee them.

What happened to the Disaster First Aid all-day training course and Hands-On Workshop that was scheduled for this weekend? (Sept. 10, 2005) It was superceded by another Fire Dept. program. This course is, at present, only available once a year, can only accommodate 30 to 40 people, and uses a team of assistant instructors and volunteers to manage such a large class. The cancellation of this class session is a significant loss.

This is a graduation-level class; the CORE volunteers who were scheduled to take it have already taken 18 hours of training in Personal, Home, & Family Preparedness, Neighborhood Preparedness & Response, Emergency Response Hands-On Training, and the CORE III training and its all-day Hands-On Workshop which includes Damage Assessment, Fire Suppression, and Search & Rescue. These people are serious; these people are dedicated. This program is important, dedicated, and spirited in the way things used to be when people were really neighbors to each other. That perspective is no longer old-fashioned – and we had better wake up to the reality – it has become a survival necessity.

When a massive disaster happens and thousands of people are injured, NO city has thousands of ambulances, or thousands of empty hospital beds. Besides, virtually ALL of the hospitals in the East Bay are sitting within one mile or less from an active earthquake fault line. Even if there are roads open, and even if you could get to a hospital, it might be destroyed, or shut down and evacuated. If nobody can help us for 24 hours or more, as they realistically predict, how can we survive? We will have to help ourselves and each other. Do you know how? Could you spare the time to learn?

Free or very inexpensive classes have been available in West Coast cities for 15 years, and other courses are available through many employers and corporations. Have some folks in your neighborhood or at your job taken them? Does anybody know what to do? Does anybody care?

A final thought: Let a start be made.
It’s not like it’s something really hard and difficult to do. Almost anyone can do it. You can do it too, for yourself, for your family. Your kid's school can do it. If you have any kind of neighborhood group, softball team, bridge club, poker night, bowling team, park or community center, you've already got the groundwork laid to start a CORE or CERT group right there.

Many of the countless people who died in the Katrina Hurricane and flood were not initially hurt by the storm’s destruction. Hundreds died because they did not have drinking water. The human body can go about 3 days without water and then, pretty much, it dries up and dies. Everyone knew the storm was coming. Anyone could have stored some clean water while they still had it, in plastic bottles or whatever. But they didn’t.

What are you going to do when 911 can’t come?

CLICK for the article "Why Isn't Standard First Aid Good Enough?" For the U.S. Geological Survey, For DFA Resources and Links, for California Office of Emergency Services for City of Berkeley Earthquake Home Safety Guide

This material may be freely distributed for nonprofit educational use. However, if quoted in publications either written or electronic, you must include a written credit for the author and an internet link to his/her website, and/or DisasterFirstAid.com. Any and all commercial use of this material is strictly prohibited without the express written permission from the authors. ©2006 V.Chames/ DisasterFirstAid.com To contact us: disasterfirstaid@earthlink.net